🔗 Share this article

Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source of the side's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard query to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.

His opener originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.